Ask Our Experts
Welcome to our FourSights Q&A series, where leaders from across the FourCentric group share their perspectives on the trends, shifts, and strategies shaping their industries. First up, Steve Harrison, CEO of Anvil Analytical, offers his view on how to navigate global trade disruptions.
Q: How do you lead through uncertainty when the rules of global trade keep changing?
Whether you see it as radical or inevitable, the shift in US trade policy is already reshaping global trade dynamics. By linking tariffs to a country’s trade surplus, it disrupts long-established norms and narrows China’s options. But the real shakeup is the unpredictability: big declarations, followed by partial pauses, signal a volatile new era.
The real question isn’t knowing what will happen; it’s preparing for what might happen and how it will impact complex supply chains. At FourCentric, we’re helping our clients prepare for a variety of scenarios like:
- US businesses shifting production out of China. The rapidly expanding tariff landscape has significant implications for the global movement of goods and the logistics systems that support it. We are seeing moves to India and Turkey, with Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia also doing well out of the change. Some of these moves are to bypass tariffs by routing through third countries, with Mexico, Vietnam, and Eastern European countries (ie Hungary, Poland, and Serbia) emerging as key intermediary hubs. Given the targeted nature of the US policy, we do not see that as a lasting solution but rather a mitigation that buys time for a more considered strategy or indeed, de-escalation.
- Tariffs on certain Chinese imports to the US have been in place since 2018. The Chinese market share of US imports fell from over 20% to 14% in that period, split 50:50 either side of Covid. In this period China’s trade with the UK & EU increased only slightly, suggesting that China found an outlet for this oversupply in APAC and the developing world. The latest escalation should lead to much higher supply and improved competition for our clients from Chinese suppliers.
- The US and other Western countries are actively pursuing reindustrialisation/nearshoring strategies in response to US tariffs and broader trade tensions. A recent report indicates that 66% of large European and US organisations have an active or in-progress reindustrialisation strategy, up from 59% in 2024. The UK alone expects to invest £490 billion in reindustrialisation efforts over the next 3 years, which means an increase in capital projects requiring support, service providers to be engaged, and new supply chains to be set up.
In a world where policy can pivot overnight, scenario planning is your best advantage. No one can predict the next move, but you can be ready for it.
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